RBA Decision on 3 November: 7 Things to Do Before Rates Move Again

Where things stand right now

On 29 September the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.25% to 4.60%. It was the fourth rise this year, the Board voted for it unanimously, and the statement said it would raise rates further "if needed". The next decision is on Tuesday 3 November.

The big piece of the puzzle lands just before that: the September-quarter inflation figures from the ABS, due on 28 October. The latest monthly reading had headline inflation at 4.0% over the year to August, with trimmed mean inflation (the measure the Reserve Bank watches most closely) at 3.6% for a third month in a row. Both are still above the 2 to 3% target.

The banks themselves can't agree on what happens next. As of late October, ANZ and Westpac were forecasting another rise to 4.85%, while CBA and NAB expected a hold but flagged that the risk of a rise was building.

So nobody knows for sure. What I can tell you is that the borrowers who come through a rising-rate period most comfortably are rarely the ones who guessed right. They are the ones who got ready either way. Here is how to do that in the week or so you have.

What another rise would actually cost you

It helps to put a real number on it, because "another 0.25%" sounds abstract. Using an illustrative variable rate of 6.5% rising to 6.75%, on a 30-year principal and interest loan:

• $600,000 loan: roughly $100 more a month (about $3,792 up to $3,892).
• $800,000 loan: roughly $130 more a month (about $5,057 up to $5,189).
• $1,000,000 loan: roughly $165 more a month (about $6,321 up to $6,486).

Your own rate and remaining term will change these figures, but they give you a sense of scale. One rise on its own is usually manageable. The harder part is that, if it happens, this would be the fifth rise this year, so the total jump since January is what most households are actually feeling.

1. Know your real rate, not the one you signed up for

This sounds obvious, but a surprising number of people I speak with don't know the rate they are paying today. Log into your banking app and check the exact rate on every split of your loan, plus whether any of it is fixed and when that fixed period ends.

Then compare it with what lenders are offering new customers. After the September rise flowed through in early October, the big four banks' lowest advertised variable rates were sitting somewhere around 6.2% to 6.5%, and a number of smaller lenders were lower again. If you are paying well above that, you are likely paying a loyalty tax.

2. Ask your lender to reprice, before you do anything else

Ringing your lender and asking for a better rate is still the quickest win available. Lenders often hold sharper rates for customers who ask, especially if your loan-to-value ratio is comfortable and your repayment history is clean. Be specific: tell them the rate you have seen elsewhere and ask whether they can match it.

If they will not move, that is useful information too. It tells you it is time to look at the wider market.

3. Check your equity before you count on refinancing

Refinancing can save real money, but it depends on a fresh valuation, and values have come down. Cotality's latest index had Sydney down about 1.4% in September and roughly 7% over the year, sitting around 8.6% below its February peak.

That matters because many of the sharpest rates are reserved for borrowers under 80% loan-to-value. If your equity has thinned, a new lender may price you differently or Lenders Mortgage Insurance could come back into the picture. Knowing roughly where your loan-to-value ratio sits now saves you chasing a rate you may not qualify for.

4. Put every spare dollar to work in your offset

If you have an offset account, every dollar in it reduces the interest you are charged at your full home loan rate. With variable rates in the mid-sixes, that is a genuinely good return on money that would otherwise sit in an everyday account earning very little.

Have your pay land in the offset, keep your savings there rather than in a separate account, and use a credit card for day-to-day spending only if you clear it in full every month. If you don't have an offset, check whether your loan allows extra repayments or redraw. Our earlier post on offset versus redraw covers the difference.

5. Build a buffer of a few months' repayments

If you can, aim to have a few months of repayments sitting in offset or redraw. A buffer turns a rate rise, a job change or an unexpected bill from a crisis into an inconvenience. It also gives you breathing room to make good decisions rather than rushed ones.

One simple trick: if you can afford it, start paying the higher repayment now, as if the rate had already gone up. If rates rise, you won't notice the difference. If they don't, the extra has gone straight off your balance.

6. Think carefully before you rush to fix

When rates are rising, fixing can feel like the safe option. Sometimes it is. But lenders have already been lifting their fixed rates in anticipation of further rises, so a fixed rate today often has those expected increases priced in. Fixing also usually limits extra repayments and offset use, and breaking a fixed loan early can be costly.

For some households, splitting the loan between fixed and variable is a sensible middle ground: certainty on part of the loan, flexibility on the rest. Our fixed versus variable guide goes into the trade-offs in more detail.

7. If you are buying, recheck your borrowing power

Every rate rise also lifts the rate lenders use to test whether you can afford a loan, because they add a serviceability buffer on top of the actual rate. That means a rise can quietly reduce how much you can borrow, even if your income has not changed.

If you have a pre-approval, check when it expires and whether the lender will honour it at the current limit. If you are about to start looking, it is worth getting your numbers reassessed after the 3 November decision so you are bidding with an accurate budget, not last quarter's.

If things are already getting tight

If your repayments are already a stretch, please don't wait. Lenders have hardship teams and they are far more flexible before a payment is missed than after. Options can include a temporary reduction in repayments, switching to interest-only for a short period, or extending the loan term. Moneysmart also points to free, confidential help from a financial counsellor on the National Debt Helpline, 1800 007 007.

The short version

• The cash rate is 4.60% and the next decision is on 3 November. The major banks are split on whether it rises again.
• One more 0.25% rise adds roughly $100 to $165 a month on a $600,000 to $1,000,000 loan.
• Check your real rate, ask your lender to reprice, and compare it with the wider market.
• Know your equity before relying on a refinance, given where Sydney values are.
• Use your offset, build a buffer, and think twice before fixing in a hurry.
• If it is getting tight, talk to your lender early.

You can't control what the Reserve Bank does next week, but you can control how ready you are for it. Most of the steps above take an hour or two, and the savings from just one of them can easily outweigh the cost of another rise.

If you would like a hand checking your rate, your equity or your borrowing power before or after the decision, I am always happy to have a free, no-obligation chat. With access to more than 70 lenders, it usually doesn't take long to see whether you are on a competitive deal and what your realistic options are.

This is general information only and not personal financial advice. Everyone's situation is different, so please get in touch and we will look at yours together. Rates, forecasts, property values and lender policy change quickly, so treat the figures here as a snapshot as at late October 2026.

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